Ftse Mib: prepare for the worst now. Buy Unicredit or Intesa?


Ftse Mib: prepare for the worst now.  Buy Unicredit or Intesa?
Written by aquitodovale

Below is the interview with Fabrizio Brasili, financial analyst, to whom we asked some questions on the current situation of the markets and in particular of Piazza Affari. Anyone wishing to contact Fabrizio Brasili can write to the email address:

The Ftse Mib has lost ground in the last few sessions, moving away from 24,000 points. What are the expectations for the next few days?

As already anticipated in the past weeks, the “Sell in May and go away” is materializing above all on the US markets, even with a certain violence, as in the last two sessions of last week, and in a more composed way on the European and international markets. particular on ours.

The Ftse Mib is going down a slow but steady descent, with increasingly lower lows and highs, placed at 23,000 / 23,200 and 23,800 / 24,000 points respectively.

During this week, the area between 22,500 / 22,600 and 22,800 / 22,900 should be retested, with spreads between the lows and highs ever closer, not excluding a monthly break even below said lows.

As anticipated for some time now, the Ftse Mib could then go and test the 21,000 / 21,500 area, already touched quickly and intraday at the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The worst must and will still have to come, whether or not this conflict ends, given the troubles that can already be glimpsed on the European socio-economic fabric in the medium to long term.

We therefore confirm the scenario already proposed to our subscribers, of a net crumbling of the Ftse Mib and the related future expiring in September towards the psychological 20,000 points.

In the event of a worsening of the general situation, it is also possible to achieve in the long term, ie in 2022-2023, the targets already indicated towards 16,000 / 16,500 points.

Also in light of the first quarter accounts released in recent days, which one do you recommend to focus on between Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo?

Neither would be said, given the assumptions of the previous question!

In any case, among the two big names in the sector, we always prefer the first in class, Intesa Sanpaolo, which has long since digested the acquisition of UBI Banca and the related benefits.

Both will be two particularly complicated years and years (2022/2023), alleviated by the increase in interest rates and the cost of money, for account holders, but weighed down by the socio-economic fabric, at least at a standstill, in that period.

Only for a “hit and run”, and based only on Intesa Sanpaolo, it is better to start accumulating at the coupon detachment of 23 May in an area between 1.45 / 1.55 and / or better immediately after the detachment, between 1.65 / € 1.75.

Then, in any case, chosen also for tax reasons, it will be necessary to cover the security with the sale of Call options in trading for the two-year period reported.

There are still many uncertainties, despite the good news of the last few days on the coupon and the purchase of securities, for Unicredit, but with a process of acquisitions and additions still to be discovered and above all implemented.
Better to stay completely out of it.

Stellantis was well bought after the quarter, while Leonardo was more cautious. What is your view on these two titles?

The two titles you cited refer to two completely different realities.

Stellantis for this last quarter and partly for the last part of 2021, managed to make profits and even higher than the company and analyst forecasts.

This despite the sharp reduction in revenues, largely due to the slowdown in production due to the lack of components such as microprocessors, mostly from Asia, for more than a year.

The stock rested just above 12 / 12.20 euros during the week, and then bounced just below 13.20 / 13.30 euros, closing the week just above 13 euros!

You can start to accumulate in an “inverted pyramid” on the return and holding of the supportive levels of 12.20 / 12.30 euros, but nothing more.

If not again on a rebound towards the resistance levels of 13.20 / 13.30 euros, at least cover with the sale of September call options, but only assisted by professional experts.

Another story of Leonardo, which we have already seen since last year, judged as the most undervalued title on our list, together with Saras and Telecom in the savings version, the other observed special and “long-term patients”.

With Leonardo we are faced with a stock that from the minimum of 5 euros touched in the last 12 months has reached a couple of times the 10 euros, creating an important negative figure of double decreasing top.

This flooding, already discounting the outbreak of the conflict and the orders received in the early months of 2022 and those to come, suggest a stock started to consolidate below the € 10.50 area and not to a continuation with a break up of said levels. .
it is therefore better to refrain from any operations on Leonardo.

The euro-dollar got on the roller coaster after the Fed meeting. What are the possible scenarios now?

Below the 1.05 euro-dollar, both the Fed above all appear to intervene, and to a lesser extent the ECB, to cool the strength of the dollar against the euro.

The American currency, in the last 12 months alone, has gone up against the single mounts from 1.2250 / 1.23 to the current 1.05 / 1.0550.

It should now, largely discounting all future rate hikes in 2022, attempt a final assault below 1.0550, down to 1.04 / 1.0450, but then take the long road of weakening at least in a intermediate area between the minimums and maximums described above, and which satisfy both Europe and America.

Go-ahead for euro-dollar operations, but exclusively with options for sale, both call and put, with long-term expiry.

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