The government crisis pushes investors to search for a safe haven. The selection of opportunities in this phase is mainly based on fundamental analysis, where cash generation stands out, which also translates into the ability to remunerate its shareholders. Piazza Affari, which after the resignation of Mario Draghi fell to a minimum since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, full of companies with valuable characteristics. It is therefore possible that, after the most emotional phase of the crisis, these securities will be rediscovered. With coupons of just under 10%, Stellantis, Mediobanca and Intesa Sanpaolo are on the podium in terms of both high yield and market confidence. Fundamental and technical analysts agree that there is unexpressed upside potential at these prices. In this perspective Economy of the Corriere della Sera reviewed the companies of the Ftse Mib index, taking into consideration the yield of the forthcoming coupon, the rating fundamental analysts and collecting the opinion of technical analysts. The result is a stock list that offers a mix of high yield and upside potential on fundamentals.
A new phase
According to Filippo Ramigni, Giotto Sim’s technical analyst, we are entering a new phase: the index of blue chip dropped below the minimum of March 2022, or shortly after the outbreak of the conflict, placed at 21 thousand points and entered a trend recovery. Positive fact that projects a first target bullish at 21,800, with a subsequent threshold of 22,500 points, which if exceeded could open to a reversal of the bearish trend. But we are more likely right now to think that this is a rebound within a bear market. Among the graphic designers there is a common desire for rebound. The S&P 500 has exceeded the psychological threshold of 4 thousand points with the possibility of climbing up to 4,200. Much will depend on the flow of news when returning from vacation, or the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB and the autumn quarterly reports which will give concrete indications on the impact of the new macroeconomic context. For Ramigni, a parameter to be taken into consideration is the price of oil: if it abandons the threshold of 94 dollars, then it could fall to 84, a level that is discounted by the market’s expectation of a recession not yet officially declared by governments and authorities. monetary.
With the rise in rates, focus on banks
While waiting to understand the evolution of the economic cycle, the only certainty is the rise in rates. A positive turning point, especially for the banking world which, after years of lean cows, will finally be able to raise prices credit. Therefore, visibility on the possibility of confirming the record levels of profits made during 2021 increases. As in the case of Intesa Sanpaolo which closed 2021 with over 4.1 billion euros in profits. The market, for the current year, expects a result that is fairly in line for which the coupon, also thanks to the red of 28% since the beginning of the year, has a prospective yield of 9.2%. Enough to protect against inflation, expected to be around 5% in the next 12 months, and the 10-year BTP yield, which remains below 4%. On the stock in judgment of the analysts largely positive with 76% recommending the purchase and a target, with a horizon of 12 months, of 2.5 euros. For Giotto sim: Intesa could soon revise the level of 1.8 euros, with an extension up to 1.90, an increase of 10% compared to current prices.
The Stellantis case
More generally, the oversold phase, which in technical jargon is an indicator that anticipates the end of a period of decline, which is affecting the entire list of blue chip suggesting a rebound in the order of 10%. Level that, judging by rating of analysts, Stellantis deserves to exceed widely. The stock has lost 25.5% since the beginning of the year despite solid fundamentals. Pending the publication of the half-year results, expected on July 28, we remind you that the generation of industrial cash at the end of 2021 was 6 billion euros, and the Strategic Plan provides that this threshold will be exceeded by 2024. Reason for which there is confidence that the annualized coupon to be distributed will have a yield, on current stock market prices, of 9.7%. Unanimous agreement among analysts: only 3% recommend selling the stock.
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