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Tax, the hidden tax “that you will not be able to avoid”: Bank of Italy empties the bag, as we will be robbed

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Tax, the hidden tax “that you will not be able to avoid”: Bank of Italy empties the bag, as we will be robbed
Written by aquitodovale

Michele Zaccardi

Once the fuss of the celebrations has settled, the features of the EU night agreement begin to look a little better. And what looked like a mighty punch thrown at Vladimir Putin now it looks more like a sonic squeak. For heaven’s sake, having reached any agreement on the sixth package of sanctions after more than a month of negotiations has certainly allowed Brussels to get out of the ridiculous terrain where it was dangerously venturing. But it is difficult to say that the pact signed by the European Council is mouth-watering, with all due respect to Mario Draghi, who called it “a great success”. To obtain the result, the EU has slipped into a tangle of derogations, exceptions and delays to make it almost incomprehensible what will happen in the coming months. For sure nothing will happen today. Forget those “immediately” and those “stops at 90% of Russian oil” with which the Euroburocrats blocked their twitter profiles overnight.

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BLOCK BY SEA The most serious part of the agreement, the one that imposes a block on imports of all Russian crude oil by sea (two thirds of what arrives in the EU), will start in 8 months (although there are also those who say 6). But not for everyone. Bulgaria, in fact, will be able to stay calm until 2024. Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, supplied by oil pipeline, will instead be temporarily exempted from respecting the sanctions. However much is not known. We will need further negotiation. Then there are Germany and Poland. They too drink from the oil pipeline (the Northern branch), but they will have no exceptions: they have both undertaken to close the taps themselves by the end of the year. And that’s not all, because the agreement for now has only the titles.

The development, the details and the final approval are entrusted to the EU ambassadors who today, perhaps, will undo the knots. But if the embargo, at least for now, is fake, the increase in the price of oil is unfortunately true and, yes, immediate. The Texas WTI benchmark index, before retreating slightly in the evening, jumped to $ 119.9 a barrel in the afternoon, an all-time high, even higher than the $ 116.4 of last March 7, a few days after the start. of the conflict. The same goes for Brent, which jumped to 120.9 dollars. Things are no better on gas. After the stop to supplies from Moscow also for Holland and Denmark, the price in Amsterdam closed up by 2.9%, at 94 euros per MWh. Prices that will be a panacea for inflation, which in Europe in May rose to 8.1%, well beyond forecasts, and in Italy up to 6.9%, a level not seen since 1986. Numbers that, in anticipation of the increase in interest rates now no longer postponed, have inflamed government bond yields again, with BTPs at 3.13% and a spred just below the 200 point threshold. Draghi yesterday at a press conference said he was satisfied, not only for the agreement, but above all because the phrase price cap (the famous gas price ceiling) appeared in the text of the European Council. A generic reference that is unlikely to produce something concrete, but so it is. When asked what will happen to the Italian debt, given that he continues to promise aid to families and businesses, he replied: “I hope to still be good and to find the money in the budget, without deviations”. While Italy and its economy hang on to the accounting skills of the former ECB number one, it remains to be seen how effective this deferred slap to the tsar will be. According to Bloomberg’s calculations, with the blockade of 90% of oil, Russia could even lose 22 billion in revenues, 10 billion from crude oil by sea and 12 from that to Poland and Germany. But 6 would enter through the exempt block.

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NO LOSSES The calculations, of course, will be done eventually. But the estimates of Kirill Melnikov, head of the Russian Energy Development Center, do not bode well. According to Melnikov, if the price of Brent oil increased by $ 15 per barrel and the price of Ural remained at the same level, the losses of the Russian companies would rise by about $ 3 billion. But in the event of a negative economic situation, they could well exceed 10 billion. A good shot? Not really. If you move all volumes to Asia and prices rise more than expected, the technician noted, “there may not even be any losses.” However, there will be losses with us. And not only for the devastating effects of inflation on growth and on the purchasing power of families, but also for the direct repercussions on refining companies. In fact, the only crude oil that arrives in Priolo is the Russian one by sea. According to the governor of Sicily, Nello Musumeci, the embargo risks burning up to 5 thousand jobs and the island would lose a point of GDP, that is to say one billion euros. The development ministry has already said it is ready to declare a complex crisis area. In short, even before dealing the blow, Italy has already received the return one. One of the two: either Draghi, instead of celebrating the phony agreements, forces Brussels to replicate the experience of the Next Generation EU or there will be trouble. As he himself said, “national budgets are not enough” to manage the coming storm.

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