The price of Bitcoin (BTC) could see further capitulation, but not before the whales start selling. In a recent report, the CryptoQuant on-chain analytics platform highlighted a increasingly bearish behavior among whales.
Sale by small whales could trigger “absolute capitulation”
The consensus among experts appears to be that the BTC / USD pair will hit a lower low than the May 12 price of $ 23,800, which is slowly increasing the nervousness among the major BTC HODLers.
Looking at the unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) of various whale bands, CryptoQuant collaborator Binh Dang reported that sales from the top cohort increased last month.
Big whales, holding a million dollars or more, are rapidly liquidating their assets; the smaller whales, i.e. with assets of less than a million dollars, were slower:
“After the decline in late January, we have seen an accumulation phase as all major value bands have risen. But since April 21, giant whales (with more than a million dollars) have sold their assets. and they don’t seem particularly interested in hoarding at the moment.
If even the smaller whales and retail traders give up, I think we will see absolute capitulation and bottom out. If not, I’ll keep an eye out for potential positive moves between wallets with over a million dollars to consider the start of a reversal. “
An accompanying chart showed the amount of BTC held by the giant whales in sharp decline; the smaller whales, with BTC between $ 100,000 and $ 1,000,000, are following their lead.
In reverse, the $ 10,000-100,000 and $ 1,000-10,000 bands showed no signs of capitulation. “Giant whales continue distribution. The minor ones and retail traders maintain a defensive strategy,“added Julio Moreno, lead on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, in some private comments.
Glassnode data seems to confirm the overall decrease in the number of entities qualifying as whales: currently the number of large wallets is at its lowest value since July 2020.
In early May, whale buying levels formed key support targets below $ 27,000. According to the on-chain tracking resource Whalemap, these whales were interested in purchasing in the aftermath of the May 12 dip.
In a subsequent analysis, the researchers showed that capitular events of the type predicted for BTC / USD required the coins to move both profitably and lose very large amounts.
“On May 12, both profits and losses were higher than usual,“explained Whalemap on Twitter.
“A good example of capitulation was that of December 2018, when an MPL activity was present [Moving Profit/Loss] similar.”
This week, the volume of on-chain transactions saw a notable increase:
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